For a few years now, I have intrepidly sported a "Don't Worry America, Israel is Behind You" T-shirt. Obama's latest foreign policy flights of fancy render those words more prophetic and meaninful than ever.
Given the Prez's feckless abandonment of the Czech Republic and Poland, the subsequent plummeting of European confidence in Obama's unconvincing professions of solidarity with them, and recent expert assessments that Iran could well possess a deliverable nuclear warhead capability within a few short years (and a bomb in less than one), it is now academic that an Israeli pre-emptive strike--perhaps even nuclear--on Iran in the months ahead is a certainty.
Though OBH may be foolishly deriving much personal satisfaction from his fanciful and sophomoric leftist conviction that appeasing Russia will beget Moscow's cooperation vis-a-vis the imposition of tougher Russian sanctions on Iran, recent history clearly teaches that Russia has been a consistently unreliable--indeed, obstructionist--partner on nearly every issue of importance to the United States and its allies. Since the dissolution of the USSR two decades ago, Moscow's goal has remained that of reasserting its hegemony in the Baltic and Eastern European states, their historical sphere of influence, a process which has now been accelerated by Obama's retreat in Eastern Europe. Of course, this serves only to increase--not diminish--chances of Russo-American miscalculations and confrontation in the years ahead.
Very worrisome is the high probability that Obama's recent unilateral capitulation to Russian demands for cancellation of a "third site"ground based missile defense system in E. Europe will accomplish little more than to 1) tempt Russian regional adventurism, 2) encourage European appeasement of Moscow, 3) fast-track nuclear proliferation throughout the Middle East, 4) further embolden an increasingly defiant and menacing Iran and N. Korea, 5) encourage Japanese and Taiwanese nuclearization, and 6) seriously increase the likelihood of an Israeli pre-emptive attack on Iran. Obviously this volatile mix of probabilities serves neither the security and economic interests of the United States nor of its friends and allies anywhere in the world. Obama's retreat exponentially heightens prospects for further miscalculations and conflict in the future.
Of course, on the remote chance that American appeasement actually results in effective Russian and Chinese sanctions against Iran--a long shot in the extreme--then Iranian nuclear ambitions will have been halted without bloodshed and worldwide economic turmoil will have been averted. However, since vacuous wishful thinking, the realm of the idealist and foolhardy, is a terrible substitute for rational analysis, I believe that in the end only Israeli military intervention can successfully deal with the mounting Iranian threat to us all.
Despite himself, however, perhaps Obama's narcissistic belief in his messianic powers of persuasion and his characteristic retreat in Eastern Europe might not prove to be as catastrophic as I fear it will eventually be. For while the worldwide economic impact of an Israeli attack on Iran would be acutely painful in the short term, Iranian nuclear development will, at the very least, have been effectively crippled for a few more years. By the time Iran is able to resume nuclear development--if it then even dares to--grown-ups will, hopefully, have returned to Washington, and a resurgent American-Israeli alliance will then be able to exert the pressure needed to ensure a nuclear-free Middle East with the added effect of blunting the growing N. Korean nuclear proliferation threat as well.
So, donning my T-shirt once again, I am necessarily looking to our bold Israeli friends to defend us and our spinelss so-called European allies from Obama's myopia and feebleness.
In truth, when it comes to my homeland's security these days, I now have much more faith in Tel Aviv than I do in Washington.
("How many wars have been averted by patience and goodwill." Wintons Churchill, Prime Minister)
("Negotiations are a euphemism for capitulation if the shadow of power is not cast across the bargaining table." George Shultz, Secretary of State)
On Leftists: ("They are the most disagreeable of people...Their insincerity? Can you not feel a sense of disgust at the arrogant presumption of superiority of these people? Superiority of intellect! Then, when it comes to practice, down they fall with a wallop not only to the level of ordinary human beings but to a level which is even far below the average." Winston Churchill)